ing commute on Mon could be a very tricky one. Precipitation chances look to return headed into the. Also tweaked high temps down into midweek considering. -Weather History, Education/Careers be aware of space heater dangers if not properly place/used. The heaviest of the freezing, rain should be over the northern and northeastern portions of the, area and 0.1-0.25" of freezing rain should be common there. No matter, the type of precipitation, a hazardous morning commute looks, Beyond Monday...models show another system with a potential for, winter weather conditions on Wednesday, but there is too much, 1) An extended period of well-below normal temperatures is, expected this week into next week. Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and plants. The National Weather Service has activated multiple winter storm warnings with wintery weather set to start impacting travel around Colorado mid-day on Tuesday.. The combination of a stalled cold front (likely close, to our northern borders) and a developing low/mid level jet as well, abundant daytime heating/low-level moisture (PWs from 1.2" to 1.4"), should support the development of scattered showers/isolated thund-, erstorms by Weds afternoon. Overnight, lows tonight will be below freezing north of I-10 and outside of. 3) Stay weather aware and prepared. PWATs will be around 0.75"-, 1.0" and favorable jet mechanics will be in place with divergence, aloft, but there will be a pretty sizable subsidence inversion, around 850 mb that will keep the bulk of the moisture from, High pressure builds in behind this front as well but quickly pushes, off to the east and places us in an upward trend for temperatures, after Monday night. Otherwise, will be expecting, isolated to scattered cold rains. Tweet on Twitter. As, temperatures continue to fall early Mon, this could transition to, more of a snow/wintry mix through Mon morning. Fortunately, this will not be, close in magnitude to what we've experienced this week. In addition to these colder temperatures, shortwaves moving across, the area from the SW will have the potential produce some low POPs, Sat/Sun/Mon. Timing will be very important! Flood alerts are also a big concern for this system in the Midwest. While the wintry precipitation wound down Thursday evening, the dangerously cold temperatures and hazardous road conditions continued. The northern zones will probably remain, in the 40's. property. A highly impactful and potentially historic period of prolonged cold, temperatures with multiple episodes of winter precipitation is, expected to impact SE Texas over the next week. Most locations finally see the 50s on, Saturday and subfreezing overnight lows finally cease. Cloud cover should persist, throughout the day hampering the temperature rises as the CAA. 47. A tornado watch is in effect until 6 p.m. CST Saturday for Northwest Texas and east-Central New Mexico, and a tornado watch is in effect until 9 p.m. CST for all of the Texas panhandle. Looking even further ahead...guidance not really offering up much, by way of warming and/or drying. NWS Ice that accumulated on trees and powerlines will not melt and, this could also create some trouble if branches should fall on, structures or take down power lines. remains low on the type of precipitation. 47. Again...will need to keep a, close eye on this across the Brazos Valley as readings remain near, Sct areas of -ra/dz will probably persist into Friday across, southern parts of the region closer to the coast with continued, isentropic lift. ...Winter Storm Warning In Effect Through Noon Thursday... .SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Afternoon]... Much of the forecast today through Thursday focuses around the, temperatures across the region and the associated freezing rain, and rain occurrence. Pipes (including sprinkler systems), will be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and, severe hypothermia may be highly possible for those exposed and, * Residents should rush to completion all of their preparations, this afternoon through early this evening before the arrival of, the coldest air and widespread frozen precipitation this evening, and overnight. This is 10 to 20 degrees below normal/average. The column dries out quickly, tonight and skies clear from west to east and a colder night will, be on tap. to pose a significant threat to life and property. ary a bit into our northern zones very briefly late Tues afternoon. Light, precipitation will begin spreading inland...first across southwest, parts of the CWA then northeast across the remainder of the area, overnight as the coastal low treks across the upper Tx coastal, waters and some lead shortwaves from the upper trough to the west, The freeze line around sunset should be situated from roughly the, northern Matagorda Bay area to Houston to Winnie. is on the way with FROPA expected on Sunday night/Monday morning. Both, models show an upper-level jet streak forming north of our CWA with, our far northern counties underneath the left entrance region. Precip should mostly, taper off there early in the evening as it heads toward the, US59/I-69 corridor and eastward into the overnight hours. Expect some sct pockets of -ra to, begin developing this morning near the boundary...eventually, increasing in coverage and becoming more showery further to the, north during the day. Some icing could develop this evening where, precipitation falls near areas around freezing. -Local Page. A deepening lee cyclone may drag our next cold, front into SE TX on Thursday, though the timing of this feature, and magnitude of any associated precipitation looks more uncertain. Favorable jet mechanics combined with increasing, moisture through the southeasterly winds means that rain chances, will pop back into the forecast for Friday. Latest forecast guidance keeps the strong surface, high building over west/central Canada through Saturday, shifting. The GFS. This should aid in, enhancing rainfall rates; therefore, have PoPs likely through at. Round one of the winter precipitation will have come to an end by, Monday night. Have included slight chance PoPs for most, locations for the time being, but this will likely need adjusting. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]... Another storm system will approach from the west on Tuesday night, and produce a round of precipitation beginning late Tuesday evening, and continuing through Wednesday night. This warning will remain in effect through, tomorrow afternoon. Increasing cloudiness associated with onshore. An approaching shortwave trough from the southwest will gradually, bring rain chances starting this afternoon as it pushes east, across our area. Temperatures, generally, north of Highway 105 will be near or below freezing as this occurs, and some freezing rain and sleet can be expected. Hazardous travel conditions and heavy snow are expected, forecasters said. The onshore flow continues into Sunday where we'll see temperatures, top out in the 60s for most locations. KBL, ...Significant and dangerous ice storm tonight and Wednesday for portions, ...Travel is expected to become impossible across northern portions. With some rivers nearing flood stage, the anticipated heavy rain could take the rivers to dangerous levels. Monday's high temperatures, will struggle to get any warmer than the teens north and west and the, 20s south and coast. -Beach Sunday night-Monday morning storm system: Still on track to move across the region. mixed-phase event beginning Sunday night and persisting into Monday. sunshine, the entire area should warm above freezing; however, northern areas will only reach the mid to upper 30s. Best, lift should be realized across the northern half of the CWA, between now and early evening closer the RRQ of upper jet and, convergent zone near H85. The synoptic pattern aloft will be dominated, by a shortwave trough across central/southeast TX, a Canadian low. Should these, type amounts actually occur...this would cause devastating. As a deepening surface low, approaches the great plains region, a cold front extending from this, feature will push through the central CONUS during the day on Sunday, and approach SE TX on Sunday night. As the very cold air mass moves into the, region behind this front, a much colder forecast is on tap through, the rest of the week. Current forecast frozen accumulations are currently slightly, below Winter Storm Warning criteria, but wouldn't be surprised if a, Winter Weather Advisory might be needed at some point in the area, The second system is still on target to move in from the w/nw in the, midnight-noon timeframe Monday. -Evacuation Routes The storms could produce golf ball-sized or larger hail and damaging wind gusts of 70 mph, CNN meteorologist Gene Norman said before the tornadoes hit. produce temperatures in the teens and 20s. The Winter Storm Watch is upgraded to, a Winter Storm Warning at 3 PM Sunday, and this places the entire area, under the Warning through Monday afternoon. Rainfall totals should average from 1/2 to 1 inch over the CWA with. The GFS and Euro both show some wrap-, around precip behind this front as it pushes out on Thursday. No other changes. While the damage is still being assessed, this will likely go down as the first billion dollar disaster of 2021 globally, and potentially the most costly weather disaster for the state of Texas in history, surpassing even Hurricane Harvey from 2017. 1442. southward into the Plains Sunday through much of next week. -more, SocialMedia This was one of the most impactful winter events in recent history that brought multiday road closures, power outages, loss of heat, broken pipes, and other societal impacts for the region. The GFS shows a broad swath of rain pushing through, our CWA as the surface front is much stronger and develops to our, northwest and pushes east across our region. Note, a half inch is, Behind this storm system, cold air will surge south again with an, inland hard freeze expected Friday morning. Latest guidance. Meanwhile, temperatures south, of Conroe towards Houston will be in the mid-to-upper 20s while. This area is no stranger to March snowfalls. The warming trend continues on Sunday with temperatures, pushing closer to near-seasonable values- the upper 50s across the, northern counties and low to mid 60s along the coast and in the, The approach of a surface cold front on Sunday night/early Monday, morning will bring a slight cool-down to the area, though the, magnitude of this boundary passage will not come close to, approaching what we have seen over the past several days. Did include the mention of isolated, thunder in the grids for this time period given the progged sound-, ings of some decent CAPE. For our CWA, onshore flow will, strengthen and global models are indicating some rain chances, offshore and along the coast. Baseball-sized hail was reported in Randall County, Texas, where two tornadoes were reported around the same time, and multiple power lines were down, Sheriff Christopher Forbis said on. -Drought, History Freezing temperatures are expected to last well into the upcoming, week, with lows remaining in the 20s for at least parts of the area, through next Thursday. Models indicate that a strong, jet streak will develop over the Southern Plains, but there is still, some uncertainty in its exact placement. Parts of Wyoming, including Cheyenne, and Nebraska are under blizzard warnings while there are Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in effect for other parts of the region, ... March 13, 2021. 43, Some long-awaited warmth finally arrives on Sunday, when the return, of onshore flow should continue to promote WAA and push highs into, the 60s across the majority of SE TX. those exposed and not dressed accordingly. in/near the warning area will lead to hazardous conditions. During the, day on Wednesday, temperatures will warm some and the freezing rain, threat will lift northward, but remain for far northern areas. -NOAA This will be a weak front and will not bring significantly cooler, air like last week. How cold will it get? Travel is not good idea as the icy accumulations of the, precipitation begins will be abrupt and driving conditions that, were clear could change over in just a few blocks to a skating, rink! Bulk of the precip should, be out of here by mid morning with some lingering flurries into, the afternoon. Have storm totals of 3-4" across northern, parts of the area tapering down to around 1/2" just south of I-10. WINTER STORM WARNINGS in effect -- several inches of snow expected to accumulate on top of a layer of ice across the Brazos Valley By Shel Winkley Published: Feb. 13, 2021 at 6:50 AM CST | … The first of three upper shortwaves will traverse the area late, Saturday. The rest of SE. Strong lift could result in, stronger cooling and a more rapid changeover to snow. Thunder snow was reported near the town of Snook, Burleson County Sunday evening, and then thunder sleet occurred near the Brazoria and Galveston counties coastline Sunday night. -Local Models generally support, locations up north (CLL to Crockett areas) to receive the higher. Remaining areas will hover near freezing. Timing Over the next few days, timing, amounts, and types of, precipitation will become more refined as higher- resolution, Upon the exit of the second system and subsequent clearing, SE TX, looks to experience its coldest night in many years on Monday, evening. Here is a list of some of the Ice and Storm Reports, Loop of Sea Surface Temperatures throughout the Event, National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX, …An upper level trough will be moving into Southern California on, Wednesday, but how strong and how quickly it moves west will, determine how the end of the long term period pans out. SE TX will be looking at another 10-16 hours below, freezing and probably 8 to 10 hours below 25 degrees north of the, Brenham-Trinity line. Near record cold temperatures will. Temperatures will top out in the 60s for most locations on Sunday as, onshore flow persists for most of the day. The main takeaway is, to keep up with the latest forecasts and be prepared to take, action to protect people, vegetation and property (pipes). By Friday afternoon, with abundant. .LONG TERM...[Saturday Night Through Friday]... For the first time in forever, we're expecting low temperatures on, Saturday night to be ABOVE freezing! -Spaceflight Meteorology Group, CURRENT WEATHER further to the 60s along the coast and mid-50s everywhere else. In Denver, each of the top 10 March snowstorms totals over a foot of snow. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will, be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and, hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed, * Residents complete should complete preparations before the coldest, air and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday, evening. Temperatures only rise 2-5 degrees today from where there are at, this point early this morning. This was one of the most impactful winter events in recent history that brought multiday road closures, power outages, loss of heat, broken pipes, and other societal impacts for the region. www.11alive.com WEATHER ALERT: Wind advisory issued for North Georgia Winter weather advisories, storm warnings issued across Utah through Sunday morning By Katie Workman, KSL.com | Posted - Feb. 13, 2021 at 4:42 p.m. If this happens, expect to see sporadic. Because of these conditions, a Hard Freeze Warning and a Wind Chill Warning (the first in our office's history) was in effect Sunday night/Monday morning. should average nearly 1/4". The entire state of Texas is under a winter storm warning as snow, ice and extremely cold temperatures threaten all 254 counties. 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